Voters do flip-flop on key measures
In a dramatic reversal from just six weeks ago, a new poll has a growth-management initiative headed for defeat in Tuesday's election, while voters are likely to approve funding for a new Arizona Cardinals football stadium. A barrage of advertising in both cases helped change the direction of public opinion. The Arizona Republic Poll, conducted Oct. 28-Nov. 1, indicates 30 percent of voters favoring Proposition 202, the Citizens Growth Management Initiative, while 51 percent oppose it and 19 percent don't know. The margin of error for the statewide survey of 802 registered voters was 3.5 percentage points. That's a steep drop from mid-September, when support topped 62 percent. Proposition 202 includes requirements for communities to draw growth boundaries and to charge developers the full cost of public services for their projects. Opponents still consider it a tight race, said Spencer Kamps, spokesman for Arizonans for Responsible Planning. The group, mostly funded by construction and real estate interests, has pulled out all the stops in a $4.4 million campaign. Kamps said his campaign, evident in yard signs and bumper stickers, is showing the flaws in Proposition 202. John Primrose, 44, of Tempe, takes the ads with a grain of salt, but he was among those polled who expect to vote no. Government restrictions just don't sit well with the Motorola employee. "Why can't you build whatever you want wherever you want?" Supporters say the drop in the poll isn't unexpected when they're being outspent by at least 5-1. Lila Schwartz, chairwoman of Citizens for Growth Management, remains hopeful because "people tend to change their minds at the last minute," and many remain undecided. Scottsdale resident Anne Rissi, 71, retired from work in parenting programs, was among those supporting Proposition 202. "The time has come to draw some lines around the city. I really think that we need to start curbing growth." Opinions on Proposition 302 also reversed in recent weeks. The latest poll had 53 percent in favor and 38 percent opposed, exactly the opposite of a poll taken in September. The margin of error was 4.6 percentage points because only Maricopa County voters were surveyed. Voters were bound to change their minds once they understood that Proposition 302 wouldn't tap their wallets and would also pay for other sports projects, said Joe Yuhas, campaign manager of AZ Wins, the yes forces. The measure raises hotel and car rental taxes, with one-third of the money going to a new stadium for the Cardinals. There was no contest in the spending, with supporters reporting $1.7 million in contributions at the end of October, while opponents raised the tiny sum of $215. Still, David Molina, president of Valley Business Owners and Concerned Citizens, is confident that "people will realize this is a bad deal" and vote no on Tuesday. The Arizona Republic Poll indicated other key propositions likely to win, although support is sliding in most cases. * Proposition 100, amending the Arizona Constitution to preserve a maximum of 3 percent of state trust land (about 279,000 acres): 56 percent in support, 28 percent opposed. Support slipped from 67 percent in September. * Proposition 203, prohibiting bilingual education: 61 percent in support, 27 percent opposed. Three-quarters supported it in September. * Proposition 301, a state sales tax increase to fund education: 57 percent in favor, 31 percent opposed. The favorable rating dropped from 67 percent six weeks ago. * Proposition 106, which would create an independent citizens commission to draw legislative and congressional districts: 42 percent in favor, 32 percent against. Polling indicated little change since September. |