Ballot Measures Start Out Strong

Guns, growth, tax cuts rank high in poll now, but support is likely to erode

Proposed ballot initiatives on guns and growth and Douglas Bruce’s tax-cut measure are heavily favored as the campaigns get ready to kick off, a new poll found.

But the leads could be short-lived, analysts said.

“Most of the time with ballot issues, the first poll you take is the high point for that particular measure,” said political analyst Katy Atkinson.

The Colorado News Poll found that 65 percent of registered voters in Colorado favored Bruce’s measure to cut four types of taxes by $25 each and 25 percent opposed it.

Talmey-Drake Research polled 517 voters June 6-13 on their views on 14 measures that will or could be on the November ballot. The poll for the Denver Rocky Mountain News and News4 has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Only a possible measure to set aside tax surpluses to fix up the state Capitol failed in the poll with 36 percent support, while another to ban types of gold mining got 50 percent backing.

Both sides of the tax-cut measure, which has qualified for the ballot, say their side will gain momentum.

“It’s nice that we are ahead 2 1/2 to 1 before we even started campaigning, ” said Bruce, author of a successful 1992 tax cut. “The more they hear about it, the more they will appreciate the fairness of this compared to other tax cuts.”

Ruth Wright, a leader of the opposition group, said voters will oppose the measure when they learn about its impacts.

“I think once we start informing the public what this does, they are going to be astonished,” said Wright, a former state legislator.

The other citizen-backed initiative that has qualified for the ballot, legalization of marijuana for medicinal purposes, had a larger lead, 73 percent to 20 percent.

The other two measures expected to make the ballot, background checks on all sales at gun shows and growth restrictions in metro areas, also enjoyed big leads.

Political analyst Eric Sondermann said a lot of these measures need large margins now to survive the expected erosion of support.

“If you don’t start with a substantial base of support, you have no chance, ” he said.

He said political and financial muscle is expected to surface against the growth and Bruce measures. The National Rifle Association may launch a campaign against the gun show background check initiative, he said.

Sondermann said support for the gun show measure may be strong enough to survive an attack. The poll found that 83 percent supported it and 15 percent were against it.

Atkinson said it doesn’t take much to persuade voters to vote no on ballot issues that enjoy big margins early. That’s what happened with school choice and parental responsibility measures that lost in past years.

“It’s kind of like a criminal trial where you only have to get one juror to come up with reasonable doubt,” she said. “If you create reasonable doubt in the minds of voters, they frequently say no even on some of these issues that have huge numbers now.”

INFOBOX

COLORADO NEWS POLL

If the election were today, how would you vote on these proposed ballot initiatives?

* Require criminal background checks of all gun sales at gun shows.

For…………………83%

Against……………..15%

Don’t Know / Not Sure…2%

* Substitute an English language immersion program of intensive study of English to replace multiyear bilingual education programs.

For…………………58%

Against……………..29%

Don’t Know / Not Sure…13%

* Cut motor-vehicle, property, income and utility taxes $25 each year.

For…………………65%

Against……………..25%

Don’t Know / Not Sure…10%

* Legalize medical use of marijuana with doctor approval.

For…………………73%

Against……………..20%

Don’t Know / Not Sure…7%

* Join multistate lotteries such as Powerball or Big Ball.

For…………………69%

Against……………..27%

Don’t Know / Not Sure…4%

* Make most cities and counties develop growth plans that would go to voters.

For…………………78%

Against……………..14%

Don’t Know / Not Sure…8%

* Use $250 million of state surplus during the next five years for math and science grants.

For…………………73%

Against……………..18%

Don’t Know / Not Sure…9%

* Require a 24-hour waiting period for an abortion.

For…………………60%

Against……………..35%

Don’t Know / Not Sure…5%

* Limit judges to 12 years in office.

For…………………63%

Against……………..27%

Don’t Know / Not Sure…10%

* Use $140 million of state surplus to renovate Capitol.

For…………………36%

Against……………..53%

Don’t Know / Not Sure…11%

* Ban open-cut or open-pit mining for gold or silver using heap or vat leaching with cyanide-ore processing agents.

For…………………50%

Against……………..31%

Don’t Know / Not Sure…19%

* Mandatory labeling of genetically engineered food.

For…………………80%

Against……………..12%

Don’t Know / Not Sure…8%

* Use 40 percent of taxes on legal gambling to buy open space.

For…………………67%

Against……………..25%

Don’t Know / Not Sure…8%

Denver Rocky Mountain News / NEWS 4 POLL

Source: Colorado New Poll was conducted by Talmey & Drake Research and Strategy Inc. for the Denver Rocky Mountain News and News4. Five hundred seventeen Colorado residents were polled during the week of June 6-13. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

NOTES: Contact Burt Hubbard at (303) 892-5107 or [email protected].



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