Voter Support For Prop. 226 Ebbs

Poll Says 61% back 227 to end bilingual education

Swayed by a $19 million campaign by labor unions, California voters appear to be turning against Proposition 226, but a sizable majority still favor passage of Proposition 227 to end bilingual education.

Voter support also declined slightly for Proposition 223, which would limit how much money schools spend on administration. But a large number of voters remain undecided, the poll showed.

Proposition 226, which would require unions to get written consent from individual members before spending any of their dues on political campaigns, started out this spring with 3-to-1 support among general voters and among union households.

But now, 47 percent of likely voters oppose the measure while just 45 percent support it, the poll showed. And among union households, a hefty 68 percent now oppose it while 27 percent support it.

Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll, said support for the measure was falling even within the seven-day period from May 20 through May 26 that the poll was conducted.

“The first three days it was slightly ahead, and the last four days it was behind by four points,” DiCamillo said. “We don’t make predictions, but historically, when propositions have this kind of character (heavy spending by opponents and falling poll numbers), the conventional wisdom is that such initiatives go down.”

Some analysts said yesterday that labor’s intense campaign against Proposition 226 is helping boost the number of probable voters in Tuesday’s election above the expected levels for a primary. Secretary of State Bill Jones predicted earlier this week that 42 percent of registered voters would cast ballots, up from 35.1 percent in the 1994 primary.

Proposition 226 supporters, including Governor Pete Wilson, had raised slightly over $2 million between January and May 16.

Meanwhile, labor unions had raised more than $19 million to defeat the measure — mounting a barrage of TV ads, making more than 1 million phone calls to voters, and mobilizing thousands of rank-and-file union members to stuff envelopes and knock on doors.

In their anti-226 ads, unions have portrayed the measure as an unfair play by out-of-state conservatives to muffle the political voice of working people.

Supporters have called the measure a simple effort to give rank-and-file union members more say in how their dues are spent.

Proposition 226 started out the campaign season with a commanding 71-to-22 percent lead. But that gradually dwindled, to 55-to-34 percent in April and now these new results show it trailing by 45-to-47 percent.

In the other closely watched ballot initiative campaign, support for Proposition 227, which would eliminate bilingual education, fell from 71 percent in April to 61 percent in yesterday’s poll.

But that majority remains large enough that the measure is likely to pass, analysts said.

“It would take a massive 226- style effort to defeat Proposition 227, and opponents don’t have that kind of money,” said Robert M. Stern, co-director of the Center for Governmental Studies in Los Angeles. “Plus, this is a gut issue that people have strong opinions about.”

Support for Proposition 227 continued to run higher among Republicans than Democrats, with 78 percent of Republicans and just 44 percent of Democrats backing it.

Sixty-three percent of whites and 60 percent of Asians backed Proposition 227, while just 52 percent of Latinos and 48 percent of blacks supported it.

Meanwhile, Proposition 223 was supported by 40 percent of voters and opposed by 43 percent.

That represented a drop in support from April, when 50 percent of voters backed the measure. But a sizable 17 percent remained undecided in yesterday’s survey.

“Voters know a little less about this one, but we’re coming to a point where a majority have finally heard of it,” DiCamillo said. “By and large, the movement here appears to be toward the `no’ side.”

BC:

FIELD POLL/PROPOSITIONS 226, 227 AND 223

— Prop. 226 Would require unions to obtain permission from individual members before withholding union dues for political contributions.

Trend of voter opinions about Prop. 226 requiring permission before withholding wages or union dues for political contributions (among likely voters)

Feb. ’98 March ’98 April ’98 May ’98

Yes vote 71% 60% 55% 45%

No vote 22% 29% 34% 47%

Undecided 7% 21% 11% 8%

— Prop. 227 Would eliminate bilingual education as it is now practiced in the state’s public schools and replace it with a one-year English-immersion program. Trend of voter opinions about Prop. 227, the bilingual education initiative (among likely voters).

Feb. ’98 March ’98 April ’98 May ’98

Yes vote 66% 70% 71% 61%

No vote 27% 20% 21% 33%

Undecided 7% 10% 8% 6%

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— Prop. 223 Trend of voter opinions about Prop. 223 regarding school spending limits on administration (among likely voters) Would prohibit school districts from spending more than 5 percent of funds from all sources for administrative costs.

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Feb. ’98 March ’98 April ’98 May ’98

Yes vote 53% 51% 50% 40%

No vote 27% 30% 31% 43%

Undecided 20% 19% 19% 17%

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The poll was conducted May 20-26 by the Field Institute. The results are based on a telephone survey of 1,051 registered voters of whom 714 were deemed likely voters in the June primary election. The survey was completed by telephone in English and Spanish using random digit dialing methods. For the overall voter sample, this poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, while findings from the subgroups would have wider tolerances.

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