Most Unaware of 2 Initiatives

Campaign, drug measures not well known, Field Poll finds

STATE — With less than a month to election day, an overwhelming number of voters are still unaware of two ballot initiatives revolving around campaign finance and drug reform, according to a new Field Poll.

Only 42 percent of voters have heard of Proposition 34, which places limits on campaign contributions, and only 20 percent are aware of Proposition 36, which would require that drug offenders be placed in treatment instead of jail, the poll found.

“Voters tend to pay attention when they get information, and so far there hasn’t been much,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll. “Without television advertising, there is a much greater emphasis placed on the ballot pamphlet, elected officials and other reliable sources.”

Of the 42 percent who said they had heard or seen something about Proposition 34, about two in five said they are inclined to support it, one in five would oppose it and more than half said they are undecided.

The yes side improved after potential voters were read the ballot summary, when 46 percent said they would vote in favor of the proposition. Only 26 percent would vote no, and 28 percent remained undecided.

However, that 20-point plurality for the yes side is down from a similar poll conducted in August.

“It’s only a very vague impression that voters have now,” DiCamillo said. “Opinion is initially positive, but I’m cautious about interpreting this because it is generally based on an instinctive reaction to the ballot label.”

Proposition 34 was put on the ballot by the Legislature, and most of its campaign funds have come in the form of loans from top Senate leaders. The opponents, who include Common Cause and the League of Women Voters, have raised less money but hope to convince voters that the measure is not real reform.

The opponents might take heart in a common belief that people tend to vote no on propositions they are not familiar with.

“The yes side has the burden of proof,” DiCamillo said. “They have to convince voters that there should be a change in the status quo.”

That theory does not bode well for the passage of Proposition 36, which would require judges to send drug offenders into treatment instead of jail.

Only 20 percent of voters said they had heard of the proposition. Of those, half said they were inclined to support it, while the other half were divided evenly between those who said they would oppose it and those who were undecided.

After being read the ballot summary, 49 percent of likely voters said they would support it, while 28 percent said they would oppose it and 23 percent remained undecided.

These support numbers are also down from August’s poll, when 55 percent said they were inclined to support the measure.

“I find it interesting that support has declined and that undecideds are actually increasing,” said DiCamillo. “People are saying that they’ve got to get a little more information for making a decision.”

The Field Poll was taken from a random telephone sampling of 1,018 likely voters in California from Sept. 29 through Oct. 8. The margin of error on the poll is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

The poll is taken as a snapshot of voter preferences and is not intended to predict election results.

CHART:

FIELD POLL / Voter Awareness Two November ballot initiatives, Proposition 34 (campaign contributions) and Proposition 36 (drug treatment programs), have been getting some media attention but not much campaign advertising, and as a result, the level of voter awareness of these two measures is not high. . — Trend of voter awareness of Propositions 34 and 36 before being read their official ballot summaries . PROPOSITION 34 Oct. Not aware 58% Aware 42% . Aug. Not aware 72% Aware 28% . PROPOSITION 36 Oct. Not aware 80% Aware 20% . Aug. Not aware 87% Aware 13% . June (x) Not aware 81% Aware 19% . — Trend of voter preferences of Propositions 34 and 36 after being read their official ballot summaries

PROPOSITION 34 Oct. Yes 46% No 26% Undecided 28% . Aug. Yes 50% No 23% Undecided 27% . PROPOSITION 36 Oct. Yes 49% No 28% Undecided 23% . Aug. Yes 55% No 27% Undecided 18% . June (x) Yes 64% No 20% Undecided 16% . (x) June measurement made before the availability of the state’s official ballot label describing Proposition 36.

. The results in this report are based on a random sample of 1,018 likely voters in California. The survey was conducted by telephone in English and Spanish from Sept. 29 to Oct. 8, 2000. Voter sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.



Comments are closed.