Ron Unz has whipped the bilingual-education establishment in two states: California in 1998 and Arizona in 2000. He hopes to double his winnings on November 5 when Colorado and Massachusetts voters consider their own ballot initiatives on language instruction. (Visit Unz’s website here.)

Odds are they’ll give bilingual ed the old heave-ho: Initiatives promoting English tend to win easily, whether they’re the “Official English” proclamations of the late 1980s and early 1990s or the more meaningful efforts Unz has sponsored. Just about everybody believes immigrants should learn English, from those who want to preserve American culture to those who see English education as a means of economic empowerment. One of the reasons there are so many pro-English groups in the country ? the biggest is U.S. English, the best is English First ? is that right-wingers aren’t the only people who respond to their direct-mail pleas. Moderates and liberals do, too, and that’s why the referenda scored so big at the polls in California and Arizona.

Wins in Colorado and Massachusetts will be welcome developments, but they also may represent the conclusion of a strategy: Once they adopt Unz-inspired ideas, there aren’t many states left that have both a large immigrant population needing English instruction and a ballot-initiative process. There’s always Florida, though qualifying for the ballot is a major legal headache. Nevada might be worthwhile, in the view that it’s a southwestern state experiencing rapid population growth, especially among Hispanics. Oregon and Washington are also options. But there really isn’t much point in running an initiative in Oklahoma, which may not even have a genuine native-language-maintenance program anywhere within its borders.

So after November, the political fight over bilingual education will have to shift. One of the most interesting battles, in fact, is already taking place in Santa Ana, a city in Orange County, Calif., said by the Census Bureau to have the highest concentration of Spanish speakers in the country ? nearly three-quarters of the locals speak it. (In El Paso, the figure is almost 70 percent and in Miami it’s 66 percent.) Santa Ana is also solidly Democratic. Yet it may soon host first officeholder election in which the dominant issue is bilingual education.

Last week, organizers submitted 15,000 signatures in an effort to recall school-board member Nativo Lopez, who has been a flamboyant defender of bilingual education ? and a fierce enemy of Unz’s Proposition 227. The registrar has a month to verify the signatures, but since the anti-Lopez coalition delivered nearly twice as many as needed, this step appears to be a formality. Lopez could face a recall election as early as January, and all signs point to a close race: Two years ago, he won reelection by just 500 votes after spending $100,000. Most school-board candidates in Santa Ana, including the successful ones, have budgets of about $10,000.

Turnout is everything in special elections, and the Lopez forces are clearly mobilized. In recent weeks, when teams of recall supporters assembled outside stores to collect signatures for their petitions, Lopez allies would arrive on the scene in short order. Shouting matches would erupt and the police had to be summoned on several occasions. One man ? a Lopez opponent, as it turns out ? was even arrested for spitting on one of his foes.

Many immigrants revere Lopez ? he heads a services and lobbying organization called Hermandad Mexicana Nacional, and he’s a fixture in the community. But he also rubs many people the wrong way, including Hispanics who want their children to learn English. There are, additionally, questions about Lopez’s ethics: the state department of education is currently suing him over millions of dollars in grants that appear to have vanished. And there does seem to be a genuine grassroots sentiment among working-class Hispanics in Santa Ana that their kids should be taught English in the public schools. They see Lopez as an obstacle to realizing this goal.

Recalling Lopez may not have quite the same impact as Colorado and Massachusetts voters rewriting the rules of English-language instruction in their states ? he could always run for election again, and win ? but it would also be laden with a symbolism that neither Democrats nor Republicans have yet grasped: Hispanic parents are increasingly disappointed by the false promise of bilingual education and want alternatives. Those who stand in their way may come to regret it.



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